VON grows Up
Report from Fall VON 2005
By Warren Montgomery
Summary
In searching for a way to summarize the Fall VON
in 2005, I considered "VON Resurected", for the large number of tech
crash casualties that seem to have re-appeared on the exhibits floor
(MCI, Global Crossing, Level 3, Stratus, even Sun), and "VON gets
Skyped", for the level of interest in Skype and it's immitators as new
entrants and new models for communication services, but settled on "VON
grows up" based on the fact that my overall impression was that VON has
gone from a largely underground conference of business and technical
people talking about radical change, to a premier telecommunications
conference where major suppliers and customers meet to discuss
the normal evolution of an industry. Unlike the irrational
exuberance shown in 2000-2001 and anti ma bell rhetoric that dominated
the early days of VON, this one featured mainly sober discussions of
how companies react to the changes enabled and forced
by new technologies. The show floor and talks didn't present
radical new solutions or really any surprises, but incremental
improvement and recap on what has been seen already. According to
Pulver the attendance was a record. Pre-show information
indicated 5,000 registered for the full conference and 3,000 for the
exhibits, certainly a large showing. Part of my view may be
biased because this time I spent all of my time in the exhibit hall and
in side meetings, not attending talks but getting reports second hand
from those who did. The sobering impact of Hurricane
Katrina was also much on people's mindes at the show and clearly
effected some of the discussions.
Some key themes
Again based mostly on what I saw in the exhibits hall and heard
elsewhere here are what I heard as the major themes
IMS
The 3GPP IP Multi-media subsystem was clearly the buzzword of the hour
on the exhibits floor. It also appeared in many talks and
dominated a couple of sessions. Nearly every product exhibited
was shown in an IMS architecture. This is perhaps no
surprise, because IMS is clearly the architecture of choice for the
major wireless and wireline carriers who buy all that equipment shown
on the floor, but it's a curious appearance in VON because:
- It's a carrier evolution architecture, IP based but otherwise
evolutionary, not revolutionary
- It's standards focussed and most of the standardization is driven
by conventional bodies like ETSI
- It's mainly about providing telephone service, not new business
models
In my view IMS has reached the peak of the "hype" curve -- not that
there isn't substance behind it, but it has become compelling to show
how products relate to IMS that many people talk about it without
having a sound understanding of what it will and wont do.
Basic POTS
Seems odd to talk about Plain Old Telephone Service being hot, but
perhaps I should explain what I mean. As in the Spring 2005 VON,
the interest of just about all the carriers serving the residential
market is dominated by plain old service concerns. The business
model is plug your plain old phone into a VoIP network and use it just
like you used to and get all the same services you got (including 911)
only cheaper by the bundle. As I said 6 months ago that's not an
exciting proposition for the industry, but it's understandable
particularly in light of recent rulings on 911 (i.e. requiring it of
alternative carriers who have not asked customers to sign a specific
disclosure that the phone won't provide that service), and by the
fierce competition for lines between the cable and phone
industry. I still wonder, though, whether VoIP is a great
technology for this market, given that circuit technology which fits
this need is so widely available and so far at least there seems little
interest in exploiting any of the wonderful things IP voice transport
might enable.
Skype and Skype look alikes
Skype was much more visible than 6 months ago. Depending on who
you are in the industry, Skype is either freind or foe, and at least
one booth proudly proclaimed the ability block Skype. Some
interesting things about Skype include:
- Higher quality sound than other connections, including the
PSTN. Skype clients use enhanced coding and playback technology
(Global IP Sound), and in my experience produce a connection that's
much closer to "being there", even in a small conference.
- Huge and growing penetration. As I write this my Skype
client shows almost 4 million users on line. That's larger than
many carrier networks and shows scalability.
- Non standard protocols. Skype isn't SIP, it isn't IMS, it
isn't Docsys, or any of the other standards the industry has come up
with, but it's too big to ignore.
In addition to free client to client telephony and chat, Skype does
offer an optional minutes based calling capability that is cheap and
easy to use. It's not going to do anything but grow.
Fixed/Mobile Convergence
Lots of discussion and demonstration of various types of Fixed/Mobile
convergence solutions. Of course the problem is everyone means
something different by this, but what many now mean is the ability to
use a single phone either as a mobile phone or as a Wifi or Wimax based
VoIP client, and the ability to seamless roam (including moving calls)
across both. Other definitions include mobile to cordless roaming
or multiple phones with the same identity (number) and services.
One thing I wonder is what the ultimate penetration of Wifi capable
phones will be, since it does require a special phone, and the benefit
to the user seems limited to whatever savings they realize by sending
some of their calls via WiFi and avoiding using mobile plan
minutes, which may not be worth as much to consumers as video, cameras,
and MP3 capabilities in phones with limited power and processing.
Hybrid networks?
I put this as tentative because nobody likes to talk about the "legacy
network" at VON, but in fact there were seveal discussions around how
to evolve to VoIP in a world where a lot of the endpoints and some of
the network technology will stay circuit for wome time. If
nothing else the various technologies to plug analog POTS phones into a
VoIP network fall in this class, but a more common problem is that
of a business with an investment in circuit phones wanting to cap
it and grow new phones in VoIP, wanting common features across both
technologies and not willing to make the investment to replace the
existing phones and engineer and/or install IP networking capable of
carrying VoIP in those facilities.
Asterisk and AIX
Asterisk is an open source IP PBX and AIX is the protocol it uses
internally. I first learned about Asterisk less than a year ago
and spent some time exploring the project, which had a modest booth, at
the Spring VON. In Fall VON they had large booth in the most
prominent location on the floor, showing a whole set of companies
selling products built around the technology. Some clearly see
this as the Linux of the communication world. I would say based
on what I've seen it's not yet clear that it will achieve the same
state, but it's alive and well and becoming commercial.
Observations from the Exhibits
The overall observation I'd make on the exhibits is that there wasn't
much really new. That's not necessarily bad, but is another sign
of "VON grows up". As noted above, there were a lot of companies
that seemed to be back from the dead. Stratus computer, one of
the poineers of fault tolerant computing that was swalloed by Ascend
and then divested as Lucent acquired Ascend, showed up selling a new
fault resiliant Intel/Linux architecture and their SS7
networking. Level3, Global Crossing, and MCI all showed up
selling VoIP based services. Excel switching showed up with a
large booth (and recently acquired NMS in the booth next to it.
Lucent and Avaya were both there. Lucent was showing IMS based
services and other products and services related to convergence.
Nortel and Alcatel also had large booths. If there was a
surprise, it was the rise of IT -- IBM, Microsoft, and even Sun had
booths in the front row and lots of interest. IT companies and
integrators are playing a big role in convergence in carrier
networks. One surprise was that I do not recall seeing a Cisco
booth. Cisco sent plenty of people, but I don't remember a
booth. maybe I just didn't see it.
Traffic through the exhibit area was vigorous, but still dominated by
vendors and consultants rather than carriers. (At least a couple
made the comment that VON still means "Vendors on the Net".
Overall it had almost the feel of the old Supercomm show, and no doubt
the demise of Supercomm and other "conventional" shows has driven some
of that traffic to VON.
Other Stuff
Here are some other observations of my week at VON
Boston and the big dig.
This was my first extended stay in Boston, a city I lived in for 5
years, since the $15 Billion dollar central artery highway replacement
project has been virtually finished. Unfortunately, I can't say
the money has done much for Boston's traffic problems. It has
eliminated the eyesore elevated roadway and eased congestion to/from
the airport a bit, but it has also left mazes of elevated ramps just
outside of the city (south boston, the airport area, and
cambridge/charlestown), and seems far more confusing than the old
roadway. You could get onto the old central artery just about
anywhere in the waterfront area and exit anywhere you like, but with
the new road we found you often faced long routes over local streets to
get to an entrance only to discover you were stuck in a feeder lane
where you couldn't then exit where you wanted to go.
VON was held at the brand new Boston convention center. This is a
large facility in the old area of warves and warehouses across the bay
from the airport and south of downtown, where the old commwealth pier
was and where some of the venerable seafood restaurants are (Anthony's
and Jimmy's). The convention center is very nice, and well served
by the "silver line" transit (actually a glorified bus, not a train
like the other MBTA "lines":) making it a convenient access from
downtown or the airport. There are no hotels and few restaurants
in the area yet though making it a bit inconvenient. We did visit
one of my old haunts, the "noname" fish restaurant one night, and I was
in fact quite disappointed. The noname started as a shack on the
docks where Boston's commecial fishing boats unloaded, and served basic
ultra-fresh fish simply prepared to people who sat at picnic tables or
on the dock. What was lacking in atmosphere or convenience (cash
only, no liquor) was more than made up for by the fish. The
restaurant is now in a building and more conventional, and the fish
wasn't nearly as good. Maybe we just had a bad day.
The Pulver Party
A major feature of all VONs is the party, and this one followed the
usual formula -- a big name band in an old theater with good eats and
drinks. The headline band, Huey Lewis and the News, was great,
much better live than recorded in my view, again fitting the "VON grows
up" theme more than some of those cutting edge "alternative" bands he
had in the boom days. They put on a great show and not only let
Jeff and his friends sing "Mustang Sally", but really seemed to enjoy
it. The atmosphere was quite different as well, in that most of
those early shows were basic a gathering of greying geeks more
interested in talking shop than in the music, but this one looked more
like saturday night at a club -- almost as many women as men and
everyone more into the music than VoIP. As usual it went on long
enough that I felt sorry for anyone with a Thursday AM talk!